The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow (PDF)

Description

NATIONAL BESTSELLER • From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, an intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives that will intrigue, awe, and inspire.“Mlodinow writes in a breezy style, interspersing probabilistic mind-benders with portraits of theorists…. The result is a readable crash course in randomness.” —The New York Times Book ReviewWith the born storyteller’s command of narrative and imaginative approach, Leonard Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how our lives are profoundly informed by chance and randomness and how everything from wine ratings and corporate success to school grades and political polls are less reliable than we believe.By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow’s intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

User’s Reviews

Reviews from Amazon users which were colected at the time this book was published on the website:

⭐I found Leonard Mlodinow’s discussion of randomness and probability here very interesting. I have always been easily confused by all this probability stuff. Thanks to Mlodinow, I now have a much better understanding. Apparently I am not alone, however. In response to an answer Marilyn vos Savant, of Parade Magazine, gave for a probability question (which door to pick on the TV show Let’s Make a Deal after being shown one had a goat behind it), over a 1000 PhDs wrote in claiming she was wrong in her assessment – she was actually right!Mlodinow begins by discussing some fundamental probability rules such as when probabilities are additive or multiplicative. We see the first inklings of probability with Gerolamo Cardano, the Italian Renaissance mathematician of the 16th century, and Galileo. But “with the blossoming of the scientific revolution the frontiers of randomness moved from Italy to France.” Here we me the heroes of this revolution, Pascal, Descartes, and Fermat. What I found intriguing was Pascal’s triangle, and how it could be used today in such practical ways. For example, if you have a focus group of six people examining a new product that, let’s say, has an appeal to half of the general population, what is the probability that the focus group will be misled? From Pascal’s triangle, we can determine that it is about two-thirds. Who would have thought? Later on, we are introduced to the works of Adolphe Quètelet, Francis Galton, Karl Pearson, Albert Einstein, and others.Throughout the book we are introduce to various interesting concepts. In the chapter “False Positives and Positive Fallacies,” the concept of conditional probability and the appeal of conspiracy theories was enlightening. The author notes that the appeal of many conspiracy theories “depends on confusing the probability that a series of events would happen if it were a product of a huge conspiracy with the probability that a huge conspiracy exists if a series of events occurs.” You have to think about that for a moment. Another interesting concept is something called expectancy bias. When we perform an assessment or measurement, we do not rely solely on perceptual input, but we tend to integrate other sources of information such as our expectations. For example, a cheap wine disguised as an expensive one might be judged as a high quality wine. Another interesting concept is the hot hand fallacy. A classic example would be a fund manager who has a long winning streak – is it a random event or not? Mlodinow explains how a random event can, in fact, have the illusion of not being random. Ever hear of sharpshooter effect? This comes into play when we hear of, let’s say, a cancer cluster in a particular area. If you draw the boundaries after the fact, you may introduce this effect. Another concept is confirmation bias where we preferentially seek evidence to support our perceived notions about a subject. This happens frequently in politics, which can lead to further polarization of sides.In the chapter entitled the same as the book, we find an interesting chart displaying fund manager’s relative rank verses their performance relative to a median return for the period 1991-1995. It shows, from left to right, the best performers to the worst (vertical bar chart). He then shows that same chart for the period 1996-2000. What a difference; it now looks totally random. So much for stock picking! As Mlodinow notes, “The study of randomness tells us that the crystal ball view of events is possible, unfortunately, only after they happen.” In government, the “should-have-known” blame it game is always played after some event – think Pearl Harbor, the World Trade Center attack, and, most recently, Benghazi. We learn how randomness may have played a role in the lives of some famous people such as Bruce Willis and Bill Gates. Yes there is a connection between talent and rewards, but random influences are more important than we might think.Truly, “In the scientific study of random processes the drunkard’s walk is the archetype.”

⭐Just my “random” opinion. Good book with lots of interesting and provocative vignettes but not as readable, enjoyable or enlightening as Subliminal or Upright Thinkers.

⭐A friend who is a journalist recommended me this book over some beers. She quoted as an example the cool fact that Apple made the music selection of the Ipod Shuffle less random so that it would “appear more random” to the listener for not repeating back-to-back the same song or artist. This example shows how we often misinterpret randomness.The book is filled with other interesting situations from the sports world, gambling and a bold bet against an Aussie state lottery, trial by mathematics, education and grading, investing, medical care, and other aspects of our daily lives.The book also recounts in chronological order the major developments in probability and statistics with interesting background information on the mathematician responsible for each breakthrough. At every step the theory is presented in a very simple though meaningful way by use of practical examples.What my journalist friend probably didn’t realize is that I am a trained geo-statistician or someone who makes a living by applying probability distribution and statistical analysis to assessing mineral deposits and this gives me special tinted lenses through which I tend to see the world. So here are my pet peeves::1 – The book has a table of contents, an index and notes but it doesn’t have a reference section or list of quoted books and papers sorted by author. This has become standard in modern nonfiction books;2 – Randomness is a fascinating subject and the author has researched it well and filled the book with fascinating examples. There was no need for the corny humour;3 – The book explains how the lack of mathematical notation held back for centuries advances in math and science. The equal sign, according to the book, was invented in the year 1557 by the British mathematician Robert Recorde, but the book does not have a single equal sign or a single mathematical expression for that matter. So it puts us back in the 16th century at best;4 – In The Blank Slate Steven Pinker explains how the human brain has a simple built in probability calculator. Of course this calculator often miscalculates. An additional chapter on Mlodinow’s book addressing behavioural psychology, the physiology and evolution of this primitive built in probability calculator would be, in my opinion, a great addition.5 – I first read about the “Drunkard’s Walk” on the book Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin by Stephen Jay Gould. In that book the allegory included the drunkard walking down a sidewalk with a wall to the right side and a gutter to the left. As the wall is an impenetrable barrier regardless of the randomness of each stumble (to the right or to the left) the drunkard’s future is inevitable:: he will end laying in the gutter. With this allegory and a competent introduction to probability the late Stephen Jay Gould tries to prove that the apparent trend of evolution to climb a ladder of complexity with mankind atop is nothing more than a drunkard’s walk contained on one side by the lower limit of complexity in living organisms. I prefer Gould’s allegory and in many respects I prefer Full House over Mlodinow’s book but Full House is focused in evolutionary biology and – what else ? – baseball.If you never had the chance to study statistics in college or if you did it many years ago and never really practised it here is an entertaining way to get a crash or refresher course. If you, like myself, see things through jaundiced eyes then reach down to the bottom of your pocket and the bottom of your purse and pull out that pair of cheap sunglasses…Leonardo AlvesBelo Horizonte – Brazil – 2010

⭐Is one of a short list of recent books about thought process.

⭐The subtitle of this book is ‘How Randomness Rules Our Lives.’ I expected a book delving into all the random elements that affects us and makes us who we are. Only the literal last chapter slightly touches this. Instead I got more of a history book of the development of probability theory, mixed in with a few anecdotes involving randomness.I’m already trained in mathematics, so there was close to nothing new for me to learn in this book. I know of the standard ways in which we can misinterpret randomness. I know of the normal distribution. I know of the Monty Hall ‘paradox.’Perhaps I’m too critical, since the book is intended for the lay audience. The statistics and probability theory presented are very basic and yet he takes quite a while to get through them.This book is not terrible. It’s just not that good, either. I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone who already knows a fair bit about probability, randomness and psychology. If you don’t, then it may be an okay book. But there are other books about randomness that I would recommend before this one.

⭐I am all in favour of popular science books – I have earned my living as a mathematician for most of my life, but I appreciate a broad view, and am not sniffy about being talked down to, if necessary. I was disappointed in this book. There is some interesting stuff in there, but there are far too many anecdotes, many of them adding very little insight, and the attempts to liven it up with humour left me cold. This is not a very short volume, and it deals with some fairly basic principles, albeit repeated in different ways again and again – it just about reaches the ideas of standard deviation and variance by the end.If this book has helped a lot of readers then I am all for it, but to me it seems to cover too little ground, in too longwinded a manner. I would hesitate to book Dr Mlodinow as an after-dinner speaker…

⭐I read this book after having reads Taleb’s Fooled By Randomness and the Black Swan. You might therefore suppose that I had already read everything there was to know about the subject. And yet The Drunkard’s Walk is a very different book, presenting a very standard view (unlike Taleb’s) in a very readable style, with plenty more to offer.The author has made the material accessible to anyone by including no mathematical details or formulae, not even in an Appendix, but it is very well written and researched, with a vast array of real life situations and experimental data referenced.I feel that anyone could understand, enjoy and benefit from this work, regardless of their background.Given that both this book and Fooled by Randomness are from the same publisher, and printed by the same uk printers, it is disappointing that this book (unlike Fooled by Randomness) does not have a laminated cover. This means the book is more susceptible to water damage and stains for the sake of a few pennies.

⭐After reading certain books, the way you see the world changes. This book is one of them. It shows how your life if a result of random processes. You may have an illusion of control over it but this is just a mental construct. You had no control over where you are right now, the job you are doing or the people you are with. They are just a result or chance. A roll of the dice.Another interesting thing I got out of it is how we wrongly assign worth to people who have largely nothing much to do with their successes. We think if a person is successful that they are intelligent in all aspects of life. But given enough people, through chance alone there will be the wildly successful who were in the right place at the right time. And if you were to run the simulation again there would be different Bill Gates and Steven Kings so even you would be a legend in some of the possible universes.

⭐I have seen the odd review or two which criticise Mlodinow for his lack of “mathematical maturity” . As a previous reviewer has pointed out, there is an obvious trade off between maintaining rigor and providing a book which is easily accessible. The latter approach characterises the essence of this book, it is a book for the average reader who does not have much or any prior knowledge of the topics discussed.If anything, this book is a history of randomness, designed to whet your appetite. Mlodinow does a good job of illustrating the very counter intuitive nature of probability and why we aren’t hardwired to understand it.From the stock market to Hollywood, we habitually underestimate the effects of randomness.If you want to see the mathematics behind stochastic processes, look elsewhere.If you would like a non-technical introduction to the concept of randomness, look no further.

Keywords

Free Download The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives in PDF format
The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives PDF Free Download
Download The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives 2008 PDF Free
The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives 2008 PDF Free Download
Download The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives PDF
Free Download Ebook The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives